Drukāt |

Norvik Research 17.11.2016

17/11/2016 16:33

Global developments

After a week-long rally, the dollar weakened today, ahead of Janet Yellen’s testimony at 15.00 GMT. Bonds rose globally earlier after Bank of Japan said it will be prepared to buy unlimited amounts of debt at fixed yields. The BoJ’s move halted selloff of Japanese government bonds. Yields on 10-year Japan government bonds declined 2 bps to 0.01% after rising 8 bps after Trump’s victory. Yields on 10-year US treasuries are down 1 bps today to 2.23%. The dollar index is down 0.2%. The pound gained 0.3% against the dollar to 1.248 as retail sales in October accelerated 7.4% YoY (against consensus of 5.3% YoY). S&P futures and both Asian and European stock markets are little changed.

ECB’s Ex. Board member Mersch said today that the ECB’s bond-buying program should be withdrawn “as soon as possible”. ECB will decide on 8 December whether to extend this EUR 1.7tn program beyond end-March. Today’s minutes of the ECB meeting on 19-20 October says that “core inflation still lacks convincing upward trend”. EURUSD is 0.3% stronger today at 1.072.

Oil prices are up on further evidence of cooperation between OPEC and Russia. Representatives of the two sides will start a number of meetings on output curbs today in Doha. US oil inventories rose 5.3 mn bbl (above projected 3.5 mn bbl). Brent prices are up 1.4% at $47.3/bbl.

Russia and CIS area developments and market colour

Russia’s industrial production data for October came out stronger than expected. IP in October fell 0.2% YoY compared to consensus forecast for a 0.4% decline and a.0.8% YoY drop in September. According to Rosstat’s estimates, in seasonally- and work day-adjusted terms, IP in October rose 0.3% MoM after 0.3% contraction in September. The mining and quarrying output rose 0.8% YoY in October after a 2.1% YoY increase in September, led by nonmetallic construction materials (+5.0% YoY), gas extraction (+4.5% YoY) and oil output (+2.4% YoY). Manufacturing output declined 0.8% YoY, after falling 1.6% YoY in September. The recovery in officially-measured output was consistent with the recent PMI data indicating a recovery in manufacturing.

The pace of inflation in Russia stayed at 0.1% in the week to 14 November. We estimate that in annual terms inflation was unchanged at 5.9% YoY.

The rouble is 0.2% stronger today at 64.6 against the dollar. OFZ yields tightened by 4-10 bps today. Russia and Kazakhstan longer-term sovereign Eurobond yields are about 5-8 and 6-10 bps tighter today, respectively. Ukraine Eurobond yields are 10-20 bps tighter. Azerbaijan-24 and Belarus-18 are 6 and 11 bps tighter.

For more information on the research, please click here.

Norvik Banka Research
+44 207 259 8854

This report is prepared by Norvik Banka UK Limited, of 46-48 Grosvenor Gardens, London, SW1W 0EB, United Kingdom (hereinafter referred to as the Company) as a marketing communication for information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion contained in this report (notwithstanding the source) is intended to be, or should be construed as an offer, a recommendation, an advice or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any financial instrument. Information contained in this report constitutes neither investment nor tax advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, risk appetite and financial situation of anyone who may receive this report. Investors should seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any financial instrument discussed in this report and carefully evaluate the risks and eventual losses that are related to the investment services and its compliance with their investment goals.
Investors should note that any income derived from investments in financial instruments may fluctuate and that the price or value of securities and investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may lose their investment or receive back less than originally invested. Past performance and income is not a guide to future performance and income. Foreign currency exchange rates may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. Investing in the Russian or CIS economies and securities involves a high degree of risk and requires appropriate knowledge and experience.
The information contained in this report have been obtained from such public sources what are believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made by the Company with regard to accuracy. Therefore the information contained herein is subject to change without prior notice.
This report should not be viewed as the only source of information, and neither the Company, nor the companies within the NORVIK group and/or any affiliates or employees thereof accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect damage arising out of or in any way connected with the use of information contained herein, nor for its authenticity.
This report may not be distributed, copied, reproduced or changed without prior written consent from the Company. Further information, which for the avoidance of doubt cannot be treated as the recommendations and/or advice either, may be obtained from the Company upon request.
This report has not been prepared on the basis of the requirements of regulatory provisions promoting independence of investment research and is not subject to the prohibition from making transactions before disseminating investment research.
Norvik Banka Research is a Trading Name of Norvik Banka UK Ltd, which is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, FRN: 681329. Registered in England and Wales with number 08940522. Registered Office: 46/48 Grosvenor Gardens 1st Floor, London, SW1W 0EB.

The information contained in this communication from the sender is confidential. It is intended solely for use by the recipient and others authorized to receive it. If you are not the recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking action in relation of the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful.

This email has been scanned for viruses and malware, and may have been automatically archived by Mimecast Ltd, an innovator in Software as a Service (SaaS) for business. Providing a safer and more useful place for your human generated data. Specializing in; Security, archiving and compliance. To find out more Click Here.

Pēdējās ziņas