Drukāt |
Atpakaļ

Norvik Research 18.11.2016

18/11/2016 17:44

Global developments

Yellen’s testimony has cemented market expectations for an interest rate hike in December further boosting the dollar and bond yields. The Fed Chair told lawmakers yesterday that FOMC was close to lifting rates again while stressing that the state of the economy still warrants only gradual tightening. US CPI for October came out at 1.6% YoY, in line with consensus, while housing starts data and initial jobless claims were much stronger than expected. The implied probability of a December hike rose to 96% yesterday. Yields on 10-year US treasuries rose 8 bps yesterday to 2.30% and are down 2 bps today. The dollar index is up 0.2% today, after a 0.7% jump yesterday. The euro weakened a further 0.1% to 1.062 shrugging off yesterday’s warning from an ECB official about a possible withdrawal of its asset-purchase program and the slight increase in Eurozone inflation in October, to 0.5% YoY, from 0.4% in September. S&P closed 0.5% higher yesterday, just 0.3% below its all-time high, S&P futures are flat today. Euro Stoxx 600 is down 0.2%, CSI 300 is down 0.6% while Nikkei 225 is up 0.7%.

Oil prices are higher despite the dollar’s strength. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said he is optimistic on a deal to cut output. Iraq and Iran are likely to be excluded from a deal to cut output and will be expected to freeze output at current levels. Brent prices are up 0.3% at $46.6/bbl.

Russia and CIS area developments and market colour

The rouble is 0.4% stronger today at 64.6 against the dollar. OFZ yields widened by 3-12 bps today. Russia and Kazakhstan longer-term sovereign Eurobond yields are about 7-8 and 6-7 bps wider today, respectively. Ukraine Eurobond yields are 12-15 bps wider, while Ukraine -19 is about 30 bps wider at 8.77%. Azerbaijan-24 and Belarus-18 are 1 and 18 bps tighter after widening 4 and 7 bps yesterday.

Corporate news

MTS reported Q3 results above expectations. Revenue in Q3 declined 1.3% YoY to RUB 112.2bn, in line with forecasts. Adjusted OIBDA was down 5% YoY to RUB 45.7bn exceeding consensus-forecast by 4 p.p. OIBDA margin declined by 1.6 p.p. to 40.7%. Net income is lower by 13% YoY to RUB 12.6bn. The company’s management affirmed the forecast for a 2-3% revenue growth and a 4% OIBDA decline in 2016. The company also plans to stop expanding its retail chain (the number of outlets approached 6,000) taking into account rising competition in the retail mobile market. Net debt as of the end of Q3 is RUB 172bn while net debt/12m OIBTA is 1.1x.

For more information on the research, please click here.

Norvik Banka Research
+44 207 259 8854
research@norvikuk.com

Disclaimer
This report is prepared by Norvik Banka UK Limited, of 46-48 Grosvenor Gardens, London, SW1W 0EB, United Kingdom (hereinafter referred to as the Company) as a marketing communication for information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion contained in this report (notwithstanding the source) is intended to be, or should be construed as an offer, a recommendation, an advice or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any financial instrument. Information contained in this report constitutes neither investment nor tax advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, risk appetite and financial situation of anyone who may receive this report. Investors should seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any financial instrument discussed in this report and carefully evaluate the risks and eventual losses that are related to the investment services and its compliance with their investment goals.
Investors should note that any income derived from investments in financial instruments may fluctuate and that the price or value of securities and investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may lose their investment or receive back less than originally invested. Past performance and income is not a guide to future performance and income. Foreign currency exchange rates may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. Investing in the Russian or CIS economies and securities involves a high degree of risk and requires appropriate knowledge and experience.
The information contained in this report have been obtained from such public sources what are believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made by the Company with regard to accuracy. Therefore the information contained herein is subject to change without prior notice.
This report should not be viewed as the only source of information, and neither the Company, nor the companies within the NORVIK group and/or any affiliates or employees thereof accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect damage arising out of or in any way connected with the use of information contained herein, nor for its authenticity.
This report may not be distributed, copied, reproduced or changed without prior written consent from the Company. Further information, which for the avoidance of doubt cannot be treated as the recommendations and/or advice either, may be obtained from the Company upon request.
This report has not been prepared on the basis of the requirements of regulatory provisions promoting independence of investment research and is not subject to the prohibition from making transactions before disseminating investment research.
Norvik Banka Research is a Trading Name of Norvik Banka UK Ltd, which is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, FRN: 681329. Registered in England and Wales with number 08940522. Registered Office: 46/48 Grosvenor Gardens 1st Floor, London, SW1W 0EB.

Disclaimer
The information contained in this communication from the sender is confidential. It is intended solely for use by the recipient and others authorized to receive it. If you are not the recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking action in relation of the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful.

This email has been scanned for viruses and malware, and may have been automatically archived by Mimecast Ltd, an innovator in Software as a Service (SaaS) for business. Providing a safer and more useful place for your human generated data. Specializing in; Security, archiving and compliance. To find out more Click Here.

Pēdējās ziņas