Drukāt |
Atpakaļ

Norvik Research 09.09.2016

09/09/2016 18:14

Global developments

The lack of additional monetary stimulus has disappointed investors. While the ECB’s decision to keep all rates unchanged was in line with expectations, President Draghi’s disclosure that an extension of the asset-purchases plan was not discussed has led to selling pressures on stocks and longer-dated bonds. The US 10y yields added 6 bps to 1.66% today, after a 6 bps increase yesterday. The dollar index is up 0.4% today, yesterday’s spike in EURUSD proved short-lived, with the euro trading at 1.121 today. Euro Stoxx 600 is down 0.7%. China’s PPI for August came out at -0.8% YoY (versus consensus for - 0.9% YoY). China’s CSI 300 declined 0.6%, Nikkei 225 is flat.

Oil prices corrected lower today after yesterday’s spike. The EIA reported US crude oil stocks down 14.5 mn bbl in the previous week (the biggest such drop since 1999, likely driven by adverse weather). Brent prices jumped 3% on the news yesterday, briefly rising through $50/bbl, but eased 1.4% today to $49.0/bbl.

Russia and CIS area developments and market colour

A court in London will reportedly review Russia’s claim against Ukraine regarding the missed $3 bn Eurobond payment on 17-20 January 2017. This in line with earlier statements by Russian officials (the Russian side was seeking an accelerated review schedule for this case). The case is a key concern for Ukraine’s creditors and an obstacle to its return to capital markets.

Ukraine’s inflation rose to 8.4% YoY in August from 7.9% in July. The increase was caused by the low base: prices fell 0.3% MoM in August. Food prices increased 4.9% YoY, apparel and footwear by 17.1%, utilities by 14.3%. Headline inflation is set to rise further by year-end, due to ongoing increases in utility payments (including a 28% hike in electricity tariffs this month). The 12% target for end-2016 set by the NBU still looks likely to be met, however.

The rouble weakened 0.6% today at 64.4 against the dollar. OFZ yields widened 2-6 bp today after tightening 5-8 bps yesterday. Most CIS area Eurobonds traded lower after this week’s rally: longer-dated securities of Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine’s are wider 9, 3-5 and 6 bp. Azerbaijan-24, Armenia-25 and Belarus-18 yields increased 4,2 and 2 bp respectively.

Corporate news

Uralkali has bought back 2.47% of shares since the start of the latest buyback program. The company plans to buy back 4% under this program, due to end by 19 September. As of 7 September 2016, Uralkali’s free float was around 6.5%.

For more information on the research, please click here.

Norvik Banka Research
+44 207 259 8854
research@norvikuk.com

Disclaimer
This report is prepared by Norvik Banka UK Limited, of 46-48 Grosvenor Gardens, London, SW1W 0EB, United Kingdom (hereinafter referred to as the Company) as a marketing communication for information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion contained in this report (notwithstanding the source) is intended to be, or should be construed as an offer, a recommendation, an advice or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any financial instrument. Information contained in this report constitutes neither investment nor tax advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, risk appetite and financial situation of anyone who may receive this report. Investors should seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any financial instrument discussed in this report and carefully evaluate the risks and eventual losses that are related to the investment services and its compliance with their investment goals.
Investors should note that any income derived from investments in financial instruments may fluctuate and that the price or value of securities and investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may lose their investment or receive back less than originally invested. Past performance and income is not a guide to future performance and income. Foreign currency exchange rates may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. Investing in the Russian or CIS economies and securities involves a high degree of risk and requires appropriate knowledge and experience.
The information contained in this report have been obtained from such public sources what are believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made by the Company with regard to accuracy. Therefore the information contained herein is subject to change without prior notice.
This report should not be viewed as the only source of information, and neither the Company, nor the companies within the NORVIK group and/or any affiliates or employees thereof accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect damage arising out of or in any way connected with the use of information contained herein, nor for its authenticity.
This report may not be distributed, copied, reproduced or changed without prior written consent from the Company. Further information, which for the avoidance of doubt cannot be treated as the recommendations and/or advice either, may be obtained from the Company upon request.
This report has not been prepared on the basis of the requirements of regulatory provisions promoting independence of investment research and is not subject to the prohibition from making transactions before disseminating investment research.
Norvik Banka Research is a Trading Name of Norvik Banka UK Ltd, which is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, FRN: 681329. Registered in England and Wales with number 08940522. Registered Office: 46/48 Grosvenor Gardens 1st Floor, London, SW1W 0EB.

Disclaimer
The information contained in this communication from the sender is confidential. It is intended solely for use by the recipient and others authorized to receive it. If you are not the recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking action in relation of the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful.

This email has been scanned for viruses and malware, and may have been automatically archived by Mimecast Ltd, an innovator in Software as a Service (SaaS) for business. Providing a safer and more useful place for your human generated data. Specializing in; Security, archiving and compliance. To find out more Click Here.

Pēdējās ziņas