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Norvik Research 10.07.2017

10/07/2017 19:10

Global developments

Global stocks are rising on expectations of further global expansion supported by strong labour data despite political uncertainty. Change in nonfarm payrolls in June came out at 222K significantly higher than consensus forecast of 178K (May reading was revised upwards from 138K to 152K). Janet Yellen’s testimony before Congress is in focus this week as investors are waiting for guidance on when the Fed will start reducing its balance sheet. The dollar is 0.1% stronger today. Futures on S&P 500 are marginally higher after the index added 0.6% on Friday. Euro Stoxx 600 is up 0.2% today. Nikkei 225 is 0.8% higher. US 10Y yields are 1 bp lower at 2.38%. Gold is down 0.2%.

Oil prices are down amid concerns on effectiveness of OPEC’s oil production curbs. Libya and Nigeria together increased their production by 0.44 mn bbl/day in May and June. Baker Hughes rotary rigs number rose by 7 to 763 in the previous week. Brent prices are marginally lower today at $46.7/bbl after falling 3.0% on Friday.

Russia and CIS area developments and market colour

The meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump lasted beyond 2 hours instead of less than an hour initially planned. The two sides talked about counter-terrorism, cyber-crime, election tampering, Syria and Ukraine and announced a ceasefire in Southern Syria. Nevertheless, there was no significant breakthrough and investors are waiting for a vote in the Congress on Russian sanctions bill.

The rouble is flat against the dollar at 60.4. OFZ yields are 2-5 bps tighter today. Russia’s and Kazakhstan’s longer term sovereign yields are 6-7 bps and 4-5 bps tighter respectively.

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