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Norvik Research 07.08.2017

07/08/2017 17:46

Global developments

The dollar rose on Friday on the backdrop of better than expected labour data. US change in nonfarm payrolls came out at 209K in July higher than consensus forecast of 180K. The dollar index is flat today after rising 0.7% on Friday. US 10Y yields are flat at 2.26%. Futures on S&P 500 are slightly higher today close to the historical high. Eurostoxx 600 is 0.2% lower after publication of lower than expected industrial production data for June in Germany. Nikkei 225 is up 0.5%. Bloomberg commodity index is up 0.3%.

Oil prices are down amid supply concerns with Libya’s biggest oil field was back into operation. OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers are meeting today in Abu Dhabi to discuss supply cut compliance. Baker Hughes active rotary rigs number in the US declined by 1 from 766 to 765 in the previous week. Brent prices are down 0.6% today at $52.1/bbl.

Russia and CIS area developments and market colour

Russia’s headline inflation in July fell to 3.9% YoY. The outturn was slightly worse than market consensus and June’s reading of 4.4% YoY. The decline was mainly due to food prices: food price inflation slowed to 3.8% YoY in July after rising to 4.8% YoY in June. Non-food goods inflation fell to 3.7% from 4.0% YoY. Services inflation stayed unchanged at 4.1% YoY in July. Officially measured core inflation fell to 3.3% YoY from 3.5% YoY in June. The latest inflation dynamics is supportive of an interest rate cut of 50 bps in September if rouble volatility is not high and US sanction’s impact is not significant.

The rouble is flat against the dollar at 60.0. OFZ yields are mixed without major changes. Russia’s longer term sovereign yields are broadly flat today.

Corporate news

Today, the Arbitrage court will hear an appeal from AFK Sistema on the arrest of its assets as part of the dispute between Sistema and Rosneft. Sistema’s representatives state that putting assets under arrest breaches principles of arbitrage process, as the plaintiff has material resources, which are many times bigger than the amount of the claim.

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