Drukāt |
Atpakaļ

Norvik Research 15.09.2016

15/09/2016 16:04

Global developments

Stock markets are higher ahead of today’s publication of important data. US retail sales and PPI data, alongside the Empire Manufacturing index are due at 12.30 GMT. Euro Stoxx 600 is up 0.1%. S&P futures are 0.4 higher after the index closed 0.1% lower yesterday. MSCI Asia Pacific index fell 0.3%. The dollar index is up 0.1%. The US 10y yields are lower 1bp to 1.68% today. The Bloomberg commodity index is 0.2% higher.

Bank of England held the key rate at 0.25% at today’s meeting but signaled room for another cut by year-end. UK data are resilient: retail sales increased 6.2% YoY in August versus the 5.4% forecast, following positive PMI and industrial production data earlier this month. GBPUSD stayed at 1.323.

Oil prices fell on expectations of higher output from key OPEC producers. Libya and Nigeria have reportedly restored their output affected by domestic conflicts, adding more than 0.8 mn bbl/day and further increasing supply surplus. The EIA data show oil inventories down 0.6 mn bbl against a 1.1 mn increase from the API. Brent prices fell 2.7% yesterday and are up 0.8% today at $46.2/bbl.

Russia and CIS area developments and market colour

Weekly inflation in Russia stayed at zero in the week to 12 September, unchanged from the previous week. On our estimates, headline inflation declined to 6.6% YoY from 6.7% YoY in the previous week. We expect the CBR to deliver a 50 bps cut in its key rate tomorrow, in view of the favourable developments on inflation and inflation expectations, and the relatively stable rouble’s exchange rate.

Yesterday the IMF Board approved a SDR 716mn ($1.0 bn) disbursement to Ukraine. This year’s first disbursement will go directly to FX reserves of the NBU (gross reserves totaled $14.1bn at end-August). The decision unlocks a $1bn loan guarantee from the US (expected later this month) and possibly a EUR 600mn loan from the EU (conditional on further legislative work regarding energy sector reforms). Government officials have expressed hope that a further $1.3bn from the IMF could be secured by year-end. The IMF statement cited the need for further progress in fiscal reforms (including pension reform), strengthening of local banking system through recapitalization, unwinding of related-party lending, and resolution of impaired assets, restructuring and divestiture of state-owned enterprises, and prosecuting high-level corruption cases. The IMF decision has boosted local FX market sentiment, with UAHUSD rising 2% vs USD since early September.

The rouble strengthened 0.1% today at 65.1 against the dollar. OFZ yields are 1-6 bp wider today. Russia and Kazakhstan longer term yields widened 1-2 bp. Ukraine sovereign yields are 3-7 bps tighter with Ukraine 19 yield tightening 8 bp to 7.69%.

For more information on the research, please click here.

Norvik Banka Research
+44 207 259 8854
research@norvikuk.com

Disclaimer
This report is prepared by Norvik Banka UK Limited, of 46-48 Grosvenor Gardens, London, SW1W 0EB, United Kingdom (hereinafter referred to as the Company) as a marketing communication for information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion contained in this report (notwithstanding the source) is intended to be, or should be construed as an offer, a recommendation, an advice or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any financial instrument. Information contained in this report constitutes neither investment nor tax advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, risk appetite and financial situation of anyone who may receive this report. Investors should seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any financial instrument discussed in this report and carefully evaluate the risks and eventual losses that are related to the investment services and its compliance with their investment goals.
Investors should note that any income derived from investments in financial instruments may fluctuate and that the price or value of securities and investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may lose their investment or receive back less than originally invested. Past performance and income is not a guide to future performance and income. Foreign currency exchange rates may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. Investing in the Russian or CIS economies and securities involves a high degree of risk and requires appropriate knowledge and experience.
The information contained in this report have been obtained from such public sources what are believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made by the Company with regard to accuracy. Therefore the information contained herein is subject to change without prior notice.
This report should not be viewed as the only source of information, and neither the Company, nor the companies within the NORVIK group and/or any affiliates or employees thereof accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect damage arising out of or in any way connected with the use of information contained herein, nor for its authenticity.
This report may not be distributed, copied, reproduced or changed without prior written consent from the Company. Further information, which for the avoidance of doubt cannot be treated as the recommendations and/or advice either, may be obtained from the Company upon request.
This report has not been prepared on the basis of the requirements of regulatory provisions promoting independence of investment research and is not subject to the prohibition from making transactions before disseminating investment research.
Norvik Banka Research is a Trading Name of Norvik Banka UK Ltd, which is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, FRN: 681329. Registered in England and Wales with number 08940522. Registered Office: 46/48 Grosvenor Gardens 1st Floor, London, SW1W 0EB.

Disclaimer
The information contained in this communication from the sender is confidential. It is intended solely for use by the recipient and others authorized to receive it. If you are not the recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking action in relation of the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful.

This email has been scanned for viruses and malware, and may have been automatically archived by Mimecast Ltd, an innovator in Software as a Service (SaaS) for business. Providing a safer and more useful place for your human generated data. Specializing in; Security, archiving and compliance. To find out more Click Here.

Pēdējās ziņas